Summer Box Office 2024 Predictions
Will this summer see a repeat of the Barbie and Oppenheimer smash?
Last year I picked up the Summer Movie Contest again here on the It’s the Pictures newsletter. I had Barbie pretty low on my list. Well, we all know how that turned out! There was simply no comp for it and frankly no comp after it—I’m not sure what the next sensation will be and if I did I probably wouldn’t be writing this newsletter! But with another summer comes more movies trying to earn our cold hard cash.
Sequels continue to be the heavy hitters with eight of my selections falling into that bracket. Studios continue to rely on predictable brands and faces to sell their blockbuster product. That means a smaller chance of something truly unique breaking out. This is also the first year in a long time that Disney will release only one Marvel movie in a calendar year. Whether it was due to diminishing returns on Superhero movies or too much of a time crunch with the strikes from 2023, this summer’s big superhero smash has something to prove.
According to Fandango, these are the top anticipated movies of summer 2024:
Deadpool & Wolverine
Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Despicable Me 4
A Quiet Place: Day One
Inside Out 2
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
The Watchers
The Fall Guy
The Garfield Movie
Borderlands
While I’m surprised at a few of these (I’m still not sure what The Watchers is), this list is a dependable guide as to what should do good business this summer. My bet is this summer will be a bit lighter in terms of box office smashes.
Scroll down for the full list, trailers, and other recommendations.
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Release Date: July 26 — Comp: Deadpool 2 ($324m)
As I mentioned above, Deadpool & Wolverine has a lot weighing on it for Disney. The superhero movies haven’t been the guaranteed successes that Disney depended on in the last 18 months— instead, they’ve seen movies like Ant-Man and The Marvels crash and burn at the box office. Add in that Deadpool & Wolverine represents the first R-rated movie in the MCU and you’ve got a recipe for trouble. Perhaps Disney is betting the audience that came out and fueled the similar R-rated Deadpool 2 will show up in droves for this one. Also, those kids that grew up with Iron Man? Those kids are now all 18+ and perfect for this violent comedy. The trailer has been doing great numbers as well, so maybe the audience is ready to come back for this one.
2. Inside Out 2
Release date: July 12 — Comp: Inside Out ($356m)
Inside Out was one of the last truly great Pixar movies (small apologies to Coco). Since then the company has created reputable, but not memorable features. Disney executives would point to the pandemic and audiences becoming used to the streaming delay as why these movies haven’t done better at the box office, but the quality has been missing too. Pixar sequels have a bad history of disappointment, but I’m hopeful that Inside Out 2 will be entertaining. I think the days of $350m plus for family fare are long gone, but I’m sure this will fill seats this summer.
3. Despicable Me 4
Release date: May 26 — Comp: Despicable Me 3 ($264m)
It’s easy for me to make a list of why the Despicable Me and Minions properties don’t really work for me. They’re obsensibly for four-year-olds but contain enough classic rock classics to keep adults sane. This being the sixth movie in the combined franchise is evidence that these movies continue to bring in the bank and I’m sure this one will too.
4. Twisters
Release date: July 19 — Comp: San Andreas ($155m)
How do you revisit a disaster classic like Twisters almost thirty years later? By casting some of the most exciting talent in Hollywood that’s how. Glen Powell and Daisy Edgar-Jones star in this sequel to the exciting hurricane movie and you know what? I’m excited for it! I know this is the type of rehash I normally cry foul at, but I think this idea has plenty of juice left in it.
5. The Fall Guy
Release date: May 3— Comp: The Lost City ($105m), Bullet Train ($103m)
I don’t really know what the comp is for this. Ryan Gosling has been everywhere since his fantastic performance in Barbie and Emily Blunt has always excelled in roles like these (I remember Edge of Tomorrow for example). This one has great reviews out of SXSW and is an original idea that is going to be all too rare this summer. I’m excited to see this one, but I still think the title is awful.
6. The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Release date: May 10 — Comp: War for the Planet of the Apes ($146m)
I loved the new trilogy of Planet of the Apes movies. They got better as they went along. That being said, I absolutely believed that was the last we’d see of this franchise for a bit. Nope. I’m sure the same audience that loved the last ones will come back for this, but I see nothing new in the promotional materials that I’m excited about.
7. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Release date: June 7 — Comp: Bad Boys for Life ($220m)
The last Bad Boys movie was released in 2020 and was the highest-grossing movie of that year. Since then I think audiences have cooled on Will Smith, but what do I know? There’s also a chance that the audience for the Bad Boys movies could love what Will Smith did publicly at the Academy Awards a few years ago!
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
Release date: June 28 — Comp: A Quiet Place: Part 2 ($188m)
Even though there are enough holes in the rules of the Quiet Place franchise to drive a yacht through, the previous movies were well-made popcorn features. Put me on record as thinking this franchise hasn’t hit its box office peak yet and this feature with Luptia Nyong’o will help the Quiet Place franchise become a crown jewel in Paramount’s library.
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Release date: May 26 — Comp: Mad Max: Fury Road ($153m)
Audiences loved Mad Max: Fury Road. I loved Mad Max: Fury Road. It was this beautiful and strange action movie that was nominated for 10 Academy Awards. But what made that so great (besides the script), was how unique it all seemed. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be there on Day 0 to see Furiosa, but what made Fury Road so great doesn’t seem to be in Furiosa. I’d love to be proven wrong.
10. IF
Release date: May 17 — Comp: ???
This is a big family movie that has a high concept (not that different than Inside Out though) and has Ryan Reynolds to help sell it. Since I write reviews as part of my living, I do think they matter and good reviews would certainly help the legs on IF. Paramount must believe in the movie since they had a Super Bowl spot for it and that comes with some kind of thoughts towards its potential box office return. This spot could’ve easily gone to The Garfield Movie as well.
If you want to listen to the It’s the Pictures podcast where my co-host Evan Crean and I make out picks for our Summer Box Office game you can listen at the YouTube link below: